Will Israel Invade Gaza Before September?

By Christopher Kinsley II

While the White House seems to be preparing for the war to end by late September, Israel is capitalizing on the chaos by attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian funding to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas have lapsed and allowed Israel the chance to attack before they receive new patronage. Israel already has plans to invade Gaza and the West bank should the ceasefire collapse, yet I believe they will seize this opportunity to conduct the invasion before September.

Marco rubio recently told a reporter that the decision to bomb Iran was influenced by Israeli plans to bomb them first, which would have provoked Iran into bombing our military bases in the middle east. Rubio quickly denied these statements the following day, however his slip-up did not go unnoticed, and suggests that the goals of the war are aligned with Israels goals, that being of an Iran unable to fund Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthi’s. With a potential cost of $100 billion per day, according to Rep. Joe Morealle, Trump is under intense pressure to accomplish his goals of a de-nuclearized and de-militarized Iran without the use of U.S. troops before the midterm elections. How could Trump accomplish regime change without U.S. troops conducting a ground invasion? An army of Kurdish Iranians may be the solution.

According to the New York Times, the ethnic population of Kurds in the middle east have begun to mobilize to invade Iran as ground forces, potentially solving one of Trumps problems, but also complicating the aftermath. The reporting is that the CIA have begun to arm the Kurdish militia with small arms in preparation of the assault, which begs the question; what did we promise the Kurds? Historically, when a local ethnic minority is used in military operations against their ruling government, they are promised independence. While officials are denying rumors of a Kurdish invasion one can only assume that should it be true, we would have promised them a region of Iran to hold as their own independent state. This proposed Kurdish state could serve as a buffer and deterrent to Iranian counterrevolutionaries should they attempt to seize power in the future. Whether this is what is planned, or if it could be successful, only time can tell.
Israel, however, do not seem willing to wait and see if the next Iranian regime will be stable and have chosen to invade Hezbollah before Iran is strong enough to resume their funding. Southern Lebanon, around 8% of the country, was warned by Israel to evacuate immediately on Wednesday March 4th, following the Lebanese cabinets vote to outlaw Hezbollah’s military activities that Monday. It appears that direct Israeli control of southern Lebanon is their solution to end the war with Hezbollah, this time with the approval of Lebanon. This same strategy is the proposed plan should the ceasefire agreement with Hamas break down. The Times of Israel reported back in January that the Israeli Defense Force has already made plans for a ground invasion of Gaza for March of 2026, should Hamas be rearmed.

Israel’s choice to invade Lebanon, and potentially Gaza, before the end of the Iran War does not necessarily mean they expect Iran to survive, there is also a financial incentive to invade as soon as possible. If Hamas were to re-arm at the same time Hezbollah and Iran were firing missiles, the economic cost would outweigh the cost of a ground invasion. Given the cooperation of the Lebanese government, and their lapse in funding, this offensive against Hezbollah seems to be the final one.
Israel partly withdrew from Gaza during the ceasefire and today occupy around 53% of Gaza. Since the ceasefire on October 10, 2026, Israel has conducted several small-scale, targeted attacks on Hamas operatives deemed as conducting terrorism. Since last month Hamas has been in the process of electing a new leader, with the results expected this month during Ramadan. However, both proposed leaders affirm Palestine’s claim to independence and reject disarmament, a key requirement for Israel to end their occupation.